New York, April 16 (BUS): Once again, the United States is on track for what could be another surge of COVID-19, with cases rising nationally and in most states after a two-month decline, the Associated Press (AP) reports.
Big one unknown? “We don’t know how high this mountain is,” said Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University.
Nobody expects a peak to reach nearly the previous peak, when the infectious omicron version of the coronavirus circulated through the population.
But experts warn that the next wave – caused by a mutation called BA.2 which is thought to be 30% more contagious – will spread across the country. They are concerned that hospitalizations, which have already begun in some parts of the Northeast, will rise in an increasing number of states in the coming weeks. And they say the wave of cases will be bigger than it looks, because the numbers reported are understaffed as more people are testing at home without reporting their infections or skipping testing altogether.
At the height of the previous Omicron eruption, reported daily cases numbered in the hundreds of thousands. As of Thursday, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases rose to 39,521, up from 30,724 two weeks ago, according to data from Johns Hopkins compiled by the Associated Press.
Dr Eric Topol, president of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, said the numbers will likely continue to grow until the increase reaches a quarter of another “brutal” rise. BA.2 may have the same effect in the United States as it did in Israel, where it created a “bump” in cases of graph measurement, he said.
Keeping the surge to some extent in check, experts said, is a higher level of immunity in the United States against a previous vaccination or infection than in early winter.
But Ray said the US could look like Europe, where the BA.2 increase was “significant” in some places with similar immunity levels. “We could have a big increase here,” he said.
The two experts said BA.2 will move across the country gradually. The Northeast has been hardest hit so far – with more than 90% of new infections from BA.2 last week compared to 86% nationwide. As of Thursday, the highest rates of new COVID cases per capita over the past 14 days were in Vermont, Rhode Island, Alaska, New York and Massachusetts. In Washington, D.C., which also ranks in the top 10 in terms of new case rates, Howard University announced that it is moving most college classes online for the remainder of the semester due to a “significant increase in COVID-19 positivity” in the district and on campus.
Some states, such as Rhode Island and New Hampshire, have seen average daily new cases rise more than 100% in two weeks, according to Johns Hopkins data.
In New Hampshire, the surge in cases comes two weeks after all 11 state-run vaccination sites were closed, and the governor is under pressure from some of the track’s advocates.
The metric they’re focusing the most on right now is hospitalization, which is still relatively low, said Joseph Wendelkin, a spokesman for the Rhode Island Department of Health. About 55 COVID-19 patients are hospitalized, compared to more than 600 at one point in the pandemic.
Officials attribute high vaccination rates. State statistics show that 99% of adults in Rhode Island have been at least partially vaccinated and 48% have received a booster dose that scientists say is key in protecting against severe disease with omicron.
Vermont also has relatively high levels of vaccination and fewer patients in hospital than during the peak of the first Omicron wave. But Dr. Mark Levine, the health commissioner there, said hospitalizations and the number of patients in intensive care units rose slightly, although deaths did not rise.
Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that new hospital admissions for patients with confirmed COVID-19 are up slightly in New England and the New York area.
On the West Coast, designers from Oregon Health & Science University expect a slight increase in hospitalizations over the next two months in that state, where cases have also risen sharply.
As the wave moves across the country, experts said states with lower vaccination rates may face more infections and severe cases ending in hospital.
Ray said government leaders should be careful to sound the right tone when talking to people about protecting themselves and others after COVID restrictions are largely lifted. Philadelphia recently became the first major US city to reintroduce an indoor mask after a sharp increase in infections. But Vermont’s Levine said there are no plans to bring back any of the restrictions that were imposed earlier during the pandemic.
“It will be difficult to impose restrictive and harsh measures,” Ray said. “Fortunately, we have some tools that we can use to mitigate the risks. And so I hope leaders will stress the importance of people watching the numbers”, being aware of the risks and considering precautions like wearing masks, vaccinations and boosters if they aren’t already.
Lynne Richmond, a 59-year-old breast cancer survivor who lives in Silver Spring, Maryland, said she plans to get her second booster and continue to wear her mask in public as cases rise in her state and nearby Washington, DC.
She said, “I’ve never stopped wearing my mask…I have remained very vigilant.” “I feel like I got this far; I don’t want to get COVID.”
At the 250-bed New Hampshire Veterans’ home in Tilton, employees are still wearing masks and distancing themselves from social media. Veterans are allowed limited excursions to places like the Antique Race Car Museum and restaurants where they can have a separate room and masked waiting staff.
Experts said vigilance is a good strategy, as the coronavirus is constantly causing curve balls to be thrown. One of the most recent: the more contagious sub variants of BA.2 found in New York State, known as BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1. Scientists warn that new and dangerous variables may emerge at any time.
“We should not think that the epidemic is over,” Topol said. “We must keep our guard up.”
AOQ