Beijing, Dec. 5 (BNA): China is easing some of the world’s toughest anti-virus controls, and authorities say the new variants are weaker. But they have not yet determined when they can end the “zero COVID” strategy that is confining millions of people to their homes and sparking protests and demands for President Xi Jinping’s resignation.
On Monday, commuters in Beijing and at least 16 other cities were allowed to ride buses and subways without having tested positive for the virus in the previous 48 hours for the first time in months. The Associated Press reports that industrial centers, including the city of Guangzhou near Hong Kong, have reopened markets and businesses and lifted most restrictions on movement while maintaining restrictions on infected neighborhoods.
The government last week announced plans to vaccinate millions of people in their 70s and 80s, a condition for ending “zero-COVID” restrictions that keep most visitors out of China and disrupt global manufacturing and trade.
That spurred hopes of a quick end to “zero COVID.” But health experts and economists warn that it will be mid-2023 and possibly 2024 before vaccination rates are high enough and hospitals are ready to deal with a potential rash of infection.
“China is not ready for a rapid reopening yet,” economists at Morgan Stanley said in a report on Monday. “We expect containment measures to continue… It is still possible to dynamically tighten restrictions in lower-tier cities in the event of an increase in hospital admissions,” he added.
The changes follow protests calling for an end to “zero COVID” but are in line with previous Communist Party promises to reduce disruption by easing quarantines and other restrictions. The changes were widely announced in a possible attempt to quell public anger, but there is no indication if any were made in response to protests in Shanghai and other cities.
China is the only major country still trying to stamp out transmission while the United States and other countries ease restrictions and try to live with the virus, which has killed at least 6.6 million people and infected nearly 650 million.
The protests began on November 25 after at least 10 people were killed in a fire in an apartment building in Urumqi, in the northwest of the country. Authorities denied suggestions that firefighters or victims were blocked by locked doors or other anti-virus controls. But the disaster became a hotbed of public frustration.
Before the protests, the Communist Party had promised to make “zero COVID” less costly and less disruptive, but said it was committed to a comprehensive containment strategy.
The party earlier announced updates to the strategy to make it more focused. Authorities have begun suspending access to infected buildings or neighborhoods rather than entire cities. But a surge in cases that began in October has prompted regions across China to close schools and confine families to cramped apartments for weeks at a time.
The authorities say they are “further improving” the controls and warn that the country needs to remain on alert.
The deputy prime minister in charge of the anti-virus campaign, Sun Chunlan, said last week that China is facing “new situations and tasks” due to the “weakening of the pathogenicity” of the latest version of omicron. She said China has “effective diagnosis and treatment” and has vaccinated more than 90% of its population.
The ruling party is trying to strike a balance between “epidemic prevention, economic stability and security for development,” the official Xinhua news agency reported, at a conference with health officials.
Despite the changes, Beijing and other cities are asking some residents to stay home or imposing other restrictions on infected neighborhoods.
Travelers at train stations in the Chinese capital and three airports are required to show a negative virus test within the past 48 hours. Elsewhere, Guangzhou and other cities said areas deemed to be at risk of infection still faced additional restrictions.
A negative virus test within the past 72 hours is still required to enter public buildings in the vast southwestern city of Chongqing, a hotspot in the latest surge in infections. Eating at restaurants in some parts of Beijing is still prohibited.
A newspaper reported last week that some Beijing residents with mild or asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 would be allowed for the first time to isolate themselves at home instead of going to one of China’s sprawling quarantine centers.
The government has not confirmed this yet.
Forecasters say the ailing economy, already under pressure from weak demand for Chinese exports and the government’s crackdown on debt in the real estate industry, could contract this quarter.
Regulators have responded by freeing up more money for lending and are trying to encourage private investment in infrastructure projects. They have eased some financial controls on property developers to reverse the slump in one of China’s largest industries.
“Policy makers are focusing their efforts on stimulating growth,” Eurasia Group analysts said in a report. “However, even if China’s transition away from a strict anti-coronavirus policy is more decisive and rapid, meeting public health milestones such as increased vaccination of the elderly will take months.”
On Monday, the government reported 30,014 new cases, of which 25,696 were asymptomatic. This was down from last week’s daily peak above 40,000 but still close to China’s daily highs.
Xi’s government viewed “zero Covid” as evidence of the superiority of China’s system compared to the United States and Western countries. The official death toll in China has reached 5,235 since the start of the epidemic, compared to 1.1 million in the United States.
China has also suffered a potential rise in deaths among people with cancer, heart disease and other conditions who have struggled to get care as hospitals focus on treating cases of the virus. Data on these deaths has not been reported.
MI