LONDON, July 17 (BNA) – US aircraft maker Boeing has cut its projected industry-wide demand for aircraft over the next 20 years, but said it expects deliveries to stabilize except for the Russian market.
Boeing projects Airlines worldwide will need 41,170 new aircraft over 20 years with half of deliveries for replacement aircraft, and single-aisle aircraft make up about 75% of the aircraft, Reuters reports.
Boeing’s new forecast for the market, released Sunday before the Farnborough Air Show, is down from its previous 20-year forecast of 43,610 deliveries.
The new estimate excludes the Russian market and its forecast of 1,540 planes due to the war in Ukraine and uncertainty about when manufacturers can sell the planes back to Russian carriers.
Boeing slightly raised its forecast for demand over the next 10 years to 19,575 aircraft deliveries – a higher forecast even when the Russian market is excluded.
“This is the result of lowering the 2021 environment, and adding a new year in 2031,” Darren Holst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing, told reporters at a press briefing ahead of Sunday’s release. If Russia is included, “it’s very close to our 2019 forecast.”
Boeing also cut its industry-wide passenger traffic growth forecast slightly to 3.8% from 4%, but boosted its shipment growth forecast to 4.1% from 4% last year. It cut its fleet growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.1%. Its forecast for wide-body deliveries over 20 years has fallen from 7,670 to 7,230.
Boeing still expects the global airline fleet to double by 2041 as it continues to see global aviation demand recover from the novel coronavirus by early 2024.
“Long-term fundamentals remain the same,” Boeing said over the next 20 years.
“Our view on the medium-term recovery — when the industry returns to 2019 levels of global air traffic — has largely not changed” since 2020, Holst said. “Overall, we still see late 2023 and early 2024 as the time when The industry is fully recovering, or at least to the pre-pandemic traffic level.”
Boeing sees strong near-term demand for aircraft despite recession risks.
“Global industry is still on a recovery path to where the normal relationship between GDP and traffic would be,” Holst said. “Any little passing picture from the point of view of the economy is likely to be overshadowed by the demand that exists as a result of those normal economic relations.”
Boeing also expects the freighter fleet to grow 80% by 2041. Air freight is operating at “historic levels,” Holst said, in part “as a result of the increased strategic value of air freight for supply chains that are facing challenges and freight that is being challenged.”
Boeing sees e-commerce networks helping to drive a “strategic transformation of air freight even in the medium and long term….This is not just a passing picture in terms of freight versus air freight.”
Holst said the number of routes operated by more than one airline has doubled over the past two decades — accounting for 70% of total capacity. It demonstrates the “continuous innovation that airlines need to continue competing at lower costs to attract more and more traffic.”
Air freight still accounts for only 1% of world trade. “A slight shift in the mode of transportation and key elements of trade has a huge impact in terms of air freight demand,” Holst said.