On Wednesday, the White House insisted there was no need for a shutdown because vaccines are widely available and appear to provide protection from the worst consequences of the virus.
But even if Omicron proves to be generally milder than Delta, it may disarm some of the available life-saving tools and put the immunocompromised and the elderly at particular risk when it launches a rapid attack on the United States.
“Our delta boom is ongoing, in fact it is accelerating. Furthermore, we will add an increase in omicron,” said Dr. Jacob Lemieux, who monitors variables for a Harvard Medical School-led research collaboration.
“This is concerning, because our hospitals are already filling up. Staff are feeling overwhelmed,” leaving limited capacity for a potential squashing of COVID-19 cases “from the Omicron wave that has been forced into the high delta.”
Likely, he and other experts said at a press briefing Tuesday, the Omicron boom is already underway in the United States, with the latest mutated coronavirus outpacing the nation’s ability to track it.
Based on samples collected last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that omicrons represent about 3% of genetically sequenced coronaviruses nationally. Percentages vary by region, with the highest percentage – 13% – in the New York/New Jersey area.
But Harvard experts said this is likely an underestimate because Omicron is moving too fast for observational attempts to keep up.
Globally, more than 75 countries have reported confirmed cases of oomicron. In the United States, 36 states have detected the variant.
Meanwhile, the delta region is experiencing a significant uptick in many places, with hot spots in New England and the upper Midwest. The five states with the highest average two-week circulation of cases per 100,000 people are New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota and Vermont.
Universities abruptly close classes during Finals week as infections multiply at a rapid rate. Both the NBA and the NHL had to postpone matches, and the NFL had its worst two-day outbreak since the pandemic began, with dozens of players infected.
Outside the US, the EU president said Omicron would become the dominant alternative within a month, and declared that “once again, this year’s Christmas will be overshadowed by the pandemic.”
Scientists around the world are racing to understand the omicron, which contains a large number of worrying mutations in important regions of its genetic makeup that can affect how it spreads from person to person.
How quickly the number of cases doubles, otherwise known as “doubling time,” can give a preview of what the disease burden could be in a few weeks.
Early data suggests that Omicron is more transmissible than Delta, with a doubling time of about two days, CDC director Rochelle Wallinsky said Wednesday.
In Britain, where Omicron cases double every two to three days, the variant is expected to soon replace Delta as the dominant strain in the country.
The United Kingdom on Wednesday recorded the highest number of new confirmed COVID-19 infections since the pandemic began, and England’s chief medical officer warned that the situation was likely to get worse as the omicron leads a new wave of the disease over the holidays.
“The data from the UK is very concerning at this point,” said Bronwyn McInnes, director of pathogen genome surveillance at MIT’s Broad Institute and Harvard, and is alarming about what will happen in the United States.
For example, she said, by Tuesday afternoon, omicron was already the most popular alternative in London.
In many ways, the omicron remains a mystery. Hints are emerging from South Africa, where it was first reported, suggesting that they may cause less serious disease than Delta but are better at evading vaccines.
But, MacInnis cautioned: “There’s a lot more we don’t know about this variant than we do, including the severity.”
At the same time, Lemieux said, there seemed to be fewer tools to fight it.
Some monoclonal antibody treatments do not work well against Omicron in lab tests, Lemieux said. Vaccines appear to provide less protection, although CDC officials have said the booster shots enhance that protection.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, said Wednesday that there is no need, at this time, for an omicron booster dose. Fauci said the two-dose mRNA vaccines, Pfizer and Moderna shots, still provide significant protection against Omicron’s hospitalization.
“If we don’t have these tools, I’d tell you to really worry,” Fauci said.
Jeff Zentes, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said the United States has the tools to fight the virus, including Omicron, and “there’s no need for a shutdown.” With vaccines now available to 95% of Americans, “we know how to keep our children in schools and our businesses open. We are not going to close our doors.”
US health officials have called for vaccinations, booster shots, wearing masks indoors and testing before travel and before holiday gatherings.
“Hospital capacity has already reached the breaking point in many states due to severe cases of COVID-19,” Michael Fraser, CEO of the Association of State and Territory Health Officials, said in a statement.
Given the high level of transmission, McInnes said, there will undoubtedly be serious cases.
“No matter how severe it affects a healthy, fully vaccinated, and boosted population, it will hit the most vulnerable among us hard,” she said. “So the elderly, the immunocompromised, and other vulnerable populations will continue to be at greater risk and will continue to bear the brunt of that.”
AOQ