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TOKYO, Dec 9 (BNA): COVID-19 cases are declining in Japan in contrast to rebounds in other parts of Asia, experts have baffled.
New daily infections have slowed to less than one per million people, the lowest among major economies excluding China, and deaths have fallen to zero in recent days.
South Korea, which has similar vaccination coverage, is seeing record infections. Cases remain high in Singapore and are rising again in Australia as authorities there ease strict restrictions on movement, according to Reuters.
One new hypothesis to explain the difference is that the type of coronavirus prevalent in Japan evolved in a way that limited its ability to replicate.
The variant of delta, known as AY.29, may now confer some immunity in the population, said Etoro Inoue, a professor at Japan’s National Institute of Genetics.
“I think AY.29 protects us from other strains,” Inoue said, warning that his research remains theoretical.
“I’m not 100% confident.”
The differences in case loads between countries resulted from a complex mix of weather, population density and different strategies to combat the pandemic, said Paul Griffin, a professor at the University of Queensland.
“We need to try to take lessons from other countries, but we shouldn’t assume the same experience from one country to another, because there are all these variables,” Griffin said.
“Some countries are using strategies in addition to vaccination to control the spread of disease, whether it’s simple measures related to hand hygiene, social distancing, the use of masks, and whether it’s mandatory or voluntary.”
Japan has never closed down the way many countries have, but it has also never abandoned the behavioral edicts and border restrictions used before vaccines arrived.
“Mask-wearing and personal hygiene rituals are still the same and important,” said Kazuaki Jindai, a researcher at Tohoku University. “The vaccine is a critical aspect of prevention but not a panacea.”
Even when vaccines are factored in and hidden, some believe that how quickly cases are declining in Japan is a matter of timing.
Japan delayed the start of the means of inoculation that the power of shots is still strong. Others point to seasonal trends, that the virus tends to peak and fall in two-month periods.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida left little to chance as Japan enters the winter months, which last year saw a deadly wave of infections that began in the cold north. He ordered border closures last week to prevent the Omicron virus, which has been detected four times so far in Japan.
In turn, Australia is pressing ahead with its plans to reopen the economy. Now that the state has achieved its vaccination goals and with COVID-19 treatments arriving, Griffin said, it’s time to put up with the slight increase in cases.
“Hopefully, the shutdown will be something we’re holding on to for extenuating circumstances,” he said.
Whatever the reason for the decline in cases in Japan, Kishida says it is important to prepare for the worst. The booster shots began last week, and the government has increased hospital capacity by more than 30% since some patients died at home during the fifth wave in August, the worst yet.
Researcher Jindai welcomes these preparations but is concerned about how they will be implemented and whether Japan can strengthen its management of healthcare data, which has been a weakness.
“If intensive care beds are full, it means that all end-stage health care services will be compromised,” said Jindai, who also works as a doctor in Kanagawa Prefecture, south of Tokyo. “Until we have the sixth wave ahead of us, we can’t be sure whether or not these measures have worked.”
HF